The Guardian’s Luke Harding is live now replying to your questions – from his new book on Trump and Putin to the state of the war in Ukraine, his explusion from Russia and his career as a foreign correspondent
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Ipswichred asks: Why is Russia considered a wider threat when it cannot even defeat Ukraine?
Pressfreedomorbust asks: What do you think is the likelihood of Russia taking military action (drones or troops) against another country such as Poland or Estonia? This would force Nato to use its military resources on this second conflict instead of supplying Ukraine.
Russia says it is at war not just with Ukraine, but the “collective west”. Accordingly, it carries out a number of hostile actions against the UK and EU countries. They include sabotage (undersea cables, bombs on cargo planes), disinformation and support for pro-Russian Eurosceptic parties (AFD in Germany, Reform in Britain, etc.)
Last year Moscow sent a swarm of decoy drones into Poland, to probe Nato’s defences. European leaders are generally reluctant to describe the Kremlin’s acts as war, preferring to use the qualifier “hybrid”. For now Putin is bogged down in Ukraine. In the meantime, Russia’s diversionary behaviour will continue. I wouldn’t rule out some kind of military “provocation”, probably limited in scope, against a Nato country.
He’s safe. There was much speculation around the time of the full-scale invasion that Putin was sick and possibly dying. This turned out to be wishful thinking. Similarly, there is little prospect of a palace coup or popular revolution in Russia. The reality is Putin will stay in power for life. Most people support him, state propaganda is as potent as ever, and the security services keep a close eye on dissent. Many of those who oppose him left the country in 2022. The majority are passive and fatalistic. The fate of Alexey Navalny – murdered in a Siberian gulag in 2024, likely on Putin’s orders – sent its own grim message.
